In the shadow of St. Peter’s Basilica, the chess pieces of global influence are being quietly arranged as cardinals prepare for one of Catholicism’s most consequential geopolitical events. Pope Francis, the first Latin American pontiff and self-styled “pope of peripheries,” died on Easter Monday, April 21, 2025, at 7:35 AM, following a stroke that led to irreversible cardiovascular collapse[1][12]. As his body is prepared for public veneration in St. Peter’s Basilica beginning Wednesday, April 23[1], the wheels of papal succession are already turning — setting in motion a conclave with implications far beyond spiritual leadership.

The Diplomatic Ninja Exits the Stage

Pope Francis’s 12-year papacy transformed Vatican diplomacy from a European-centric ancien régime into a global security actor with surprising reach. The Argentine pontiff leveraged his outsider status to position the Holy See as a neutral broker in an increasingly multipolar world, wielding moral authority as currency in spaces where conventional power politics faltered[6].

This “diplomat in white” orchestrated breakthrough moments that traditional state actors couldn’t achieve, most notably the historic 2014 détente between the United States and Cuba. As one Vatican observer noted, “Rome stepped in as a guarantor between countries with very low trust”[15]. This back-channel diplomatic triumph exemplifies how Francis deployed the Vatican’s unique sovereign status to bypass traditional power structures and shape global affairs without military might or economic leverage[7].

Unlike his European predecessors, Francis infused Vatican diplomacy with a perspective from the Global South, focusing on issues traditionally overlooked by Western security frameworks: economic inequality, resource exploitation, and what he called “ideological colonisation”[13]. His diplomatic playbook viewed climate change, poverty, and migration not as isolated crises but as interconnected security threats requiring multilateral solutions[4].

The Uncounterable Asset: Papal Soft Power

The Vatican’s diplomatic corps — a clerical army of highly trained emissaries with unusual access to political leaders — operates beyond the constraints facing conventional intelligence services. With diplomatic relations with over 180 countries and a global network of 1.4 billion Catholics, the Holy See under Francis demonstrated how moral authority can function as an uncounterable form of soft power in international relations[11].

Even as the Pope faced criticism for his positions on Ukraine and Russia, suggesting that NATO was “barking at Russia’s door,” his willingness to engage all parties — including those isolated by Western powers — made the Vatican an essential backchannel when traditional diplomatic avenues closed[15].

The Conclave: A Geopolitical Inflection Point

In approximately 20 days, the College of Cardinals will gather in the Sistine Chapel for a conclave where electronic countermeasures will transform the venue into an “electronic fortress” impervious to modern surveillance technologies. Signal jammers will prevent unauthorised communications, while thorough inspections will search for hidden microphones and cameras. Vatican windows will be covered with opaque film to prevent satellite imaging, drones, or AI-powered lip-reading technologies from compromising deliberations[3].

This extreme operational security underscores the strategic significance of what happens behind those sealed doors. While spiritual considerations remain paramount, geopolitical calculations will inevitably influence the selection process. As one Vatican expert observed, “Geopolitics are a factor in electing popes, though the office’s primary spiritual mission ensures that they will never be the factor”[2].

The Francis Balance Sheet: Diplomatic Assets and Liabilities

Francis leaves behind a complex diplomatic balance sheet that his successor must reckon with:

Assets acquired:

• Renewed credibility in the Global South as an independent actor separate from Western powers[15]
• Revitalised interfaith dialogue, particularly with Muslim nations[13]
• Breakthrough agreement with China on bishop selection, despite Western objections[15]
• Financial reform initiatives that reduced Vatican debt by 15% in 2023[5]

Liabilities outstanding:

• Structural Vatican deficit of €50–60 million annually[5]
• Only 20% of Vatican real estate generating income[5]
• Strained relations with conservative Catholic constituencies
• Controversial positioning on Russia-Ukraine conflict[15]

The Papal Contenders: Strategic Profiles

The conclave’s outcome will significantly reshape international relations across multiple domains. Cardinal electors face a stark choice between continuing Francis’s expansive global engagement or pivoting toward a more traditional, Eurocentric approach. Key contenders represent dramatically different geopolitical visions:

The Reformists

• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines): Would likely deepen Francis’s pivot to Asia and the Global South while accelerating Vatican financial reforms. His election would signal continued engagement with China despite Western security concerns[5].
• Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana): Would intensify Vatican focus on climate change as a security issue and emphasise development in Africa. His selection would expand Vatican influence in regions where Western powers compete with China and Russia for influence[5].

The Traditionalists

• Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy): As current Secretary of State, represents continuity in Vatican diplomacy but with more traditional European orientation. His selection would signal partial recalibration toward Western security frameworks while maintaining Vatican independence[5][10].
• Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary): Would likely strengthen Vatican ties to Eastern Europe, potentially creating new alignment with conservative governments there. His selection would reshape Vatican position on migration and relations with Russia[5].

Global Security Implications: The Next Pope’s First Moves

The next Pope’s initial diplomatic decisions will send critical signals across multiple security domains:

Financial Security Architecture

The Vatican’s structural deficit presents both vulnerability and opportunity. A reformist pope might accelerate asset monetisation and partnerships with private firms, creating new investment opportunities in real estate and infrastructure. Conversely, a traditionalist might prolong the status quo, leaving the Vatican dependent on volatile asset sales in economically uncertain times[5].

Climate Security Framework

A pope continuing Francis’s environmental emphasis would strengthen global climate security frameworks by providing moral authority to emissions reduction efforts. Alternatively, a traditionalist pope might de-emphasise climate initiatives, weakening multilateral climate agreements by removing a key normative voice[5].

Regional Security Alignments

The papal selection will reshape regional security dynamics in several theatres:

• Eastern Europe: A Hungarian or conservative Italian pope might shift Vatican positioning on Russia, potentially complicating NATO’s unified stance.
• Asia-Pacific: A Filipino pope would likely strengthen Vatican engagement with China despite Western security concerns, potentially creating new diplomatic channels amid U.S.-China competition.
• Africa: An African pope would elevate security concerns on that continent, potentially redirecting Vatican resources toward development initiatives in regions experiencing competition between Western powers and China[5].

Counter-Intelligence Implications: The Vatican’s Unique Position

Unlike conventional intelligence services constrained by political alignments, the Vatican’s diplomatic corps operates with unique freedom to engage sanctioned regimes, terrorist organisations, and non-state actors. This capability — deployed effectively by Francis in Colombia peace negotiations[15] — provides an invaluable backchannel in conflicts where direct engagement proves impossible.

The next pope will determine whether this capability expands or contracts. A pope from the Global South might leverage this unique position more aggressively in regional conflicts, while a European traditionalist might align Vatican diplomatic activities more closely with Western security frameworks.

The Geopolitical Trinity

As cardinals prepare for the conclave, the world watches a rare inflection point in global security architecture. The next pope will inherit Francis’s diplomatic revolution: a vision that connected economics, environment, and ethics into a unified security framework challenging conventional power politics.

Whether the conclave produces continuity or counterrevolution, one fact remains certain: in an era of proliferating threats and diminishing diplomatic channels, the voice from St. Peter’s balcony will resonate far beyond the spiritual realm, shaping global security dynamics for years to come.

When white smoke finally rises above the Sistine Chapel, announcing a new pope, it will signal not just a spiritual succession but a geopolitical realignment with consequences for security alliances worldwide.

References

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[2] Geopolitics and Papal Elections — Crisis Magazine https://crisismagazine.com/opinion/geopolitics-and-papal-elections

[3] The Tech That Safeguards the Conclave’s Secrecy — WIRED https://www.wired.com/story/technology-used-to-shield-conclave-pope-francis/

[4] How Pope Francis’ progressive legacy changed the church — CNN https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/22/world/catholic-church-pope-francis-legacy-cec/index.html

[5] A Conclave to Test Pope Francis’s Legacy — AInvest https://www.ainvest.com/news/conclave-test-pope-francis-legacy-pope-shape-global-investments-2504/

[6] How Pope Francis Became a Diplomatic Ninja — Global Dispatches https://www.globaldispatches.org/p/how-pope-francis-became-a-diplomatic

[7] [PDF] THE HOLY SEE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS http://uniset.ca/microstates2/Sovereignty_Supranationalism_and_Soft_Power.pdf

[8] Colombo Security Conclave: India’s Leadership in the Indian Ocean https://samvadaworld.com/featured/colombo-security-conclave-indias-leadership-in-the-indian-ocean/

[9] What to Know About Pope Francis’ Funeral Arrangements https://www.nytimes.com/article/pope-francis-death-health-problems.html

[10] Cardinal Parolin: Vatican diplomacy increasingly at the service of … https://www.vaticannews.va/en/vatican-city/news/2025-04/cardinal-parolin-pope-chirograph-ecclesiastical-accademy-diploma.html

[11] How Vatican Diplomacy Shapes International Relations? https://theenterpriseworld.com/vatican-diplomacy-international-relations/

[12] Pope’s death due to stroke and irreversible cardiocirculatory collapse https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2025-04/pope-francis-death-due-to-stroke-and-irreversible-cardiocircula.html

[13] Pope Francis ushered in a return to active but divisive Vatican … https://www.lemonde.fr/en/obituaries/article/2025/04/21/pope-francis-ushered-in-a-return-to-active-but-divisive-vatican-diplomacy_6740469_15.html

[14] Pope Francis, first Latin American pontiff, dies after stroke and … https://www.reuters.com/world/pope-francis-has-died-vatican-says-video-statement-2025-04-21/

[15] Essay: Pope Francis the diplomat relied on personal encounters that … https://sightmagazine.com.au/essays/essay-pope-francis-the-diplomat-relied-on-personal-encounters-that-had-global-reach/

[16] Pope proposes ‘diplomacy of hope’ to members of Diplomatic Corps https://holyseegeneva.org/news/pope-proposes-diplomacy-of-hope-to-members-of-diplomatic-corps/

[17] Pope Francis — Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Francis

[18] The latest on Pope Francis’s death, services — YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLiNvfaYLL0

[19] Expect the Unexpected From the Papal Conclave | TIME https://time.com/7263529/expecting-the-unexpected-from-papal-conclave/

[20] How is a new pope chosen? The papal conclave process explained. https://www.businessinsider.com/papal-conclave-process-selection-explained-pope-francis-dead-2025-4

[21] Pope Francis leaves legacy as Catholic Church reformer — NBC News https://www.nbcnews.com/news/pope-francis/pope-francis-obituary-rcna32492

[22] The next pope: who will succeed Pope Francis? — Vox https://www.vox.com/religion/409779/next-pope-francis-candidates-death-conclave-region-politics

[23] Geopolitics and Papal Elections — ZENIT — English https://zenit.org/2025/03/04/geopolitics-and-papal-elections/

[24] POPE FRANCIS, PASTOR-PONTIFF, REVITALIZED GLOBAL … https://www.ncronline.org/vatican/vatican-news/pope-francis-pastor-pontiff-revitalized-global-catholic-church

[25] How Will Pope Francis Be Remembered? — YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADQe2w8_C7c

[26] ‘Conclave’, ‘The Two Popes’ Streaming Viewership Skyrockets … https://www.insighttrendsworld.com/post/entertainment-conclave-the-two-popes-streaming-viewership-skyrockets-following-pope-francis-d

[27] Who will be the next pope? Here’s how the conclave works — NPR https://www.npr.org/2025/04/21/nx-s1-5304054/conclave-pope-chosen-francis-dies-white-black-smoke

[28] How the Catholic Church will select the next pope | news.com.au https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/how-the-catholic-church-will-select-the-next-pope/news-story/7b0300fae26e1d99b14e31c9a6a929b6

[29] Who will be the next Pope? The top candidates in an unpredictable … https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgxk40ndk1o

[30] [PDF] Colombo Security Conclave: A New Initiative in the Indian Ocean … https://bipss.org.bd/pdf/Colombo%20Security%20Conclave%20A%20New%20Initiative%20in%20the%20Indian%20Ocean%20Region.pdf

[31] Francis’s legacy: mercy, margins, and global diplomacy https://decode39.com/10513/franciss-legacy-mercy-margins-and-global-diplomacy/

[32] Invisible Legions: The Pope and International Relations https://www.e-ir.info/2013/04/10/invisible-legions-the-pope-and-international-relations/

[33] The Colombo Security Conclave as a much-needed security … https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-colombo-security-conclave-as-a-much-needed-security-dimension

[34] A New Pontiff and the Future of Vatican Foreign Policy: Recalibrating Relations with Russia https://lansinginstitute.org/2025/04/22/a-new-pontiff-and-the-future-of-vatican-foreign-policy-recalibrating-relations-with-russia/

[35] The Power of the Pope — Council on Foreign Relations https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/power-of-the-pope

[36] How the Colombo Security Conclave Can Avoid SAARC’s Fate https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/how-the-colombo-security-conclave-can-avoid-saarcs-fate/

[37] Pope Francis the diplomat relied on personal encounters that had global reach https://religionnews.com/2025/04/22/pope-francis-diplomacy/

[38] Foreign relations of the Holy See — Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_the_Holy_See

[39] The Colombo Security Conclave: What is it and what does it mean … https://aii.unimelb.edu.au/the-colombo-security-conclave-what-is-it-and-what-does-it-mean-for-australia/

[40] The Enduring Power of the Papacy: Pope Francis and International … https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/responses/the-enduring-power-of-the-papacy-pope-francis-and-international-relations